Current issue
News
From the Editors June 2022
Invitation
From the Editors September 2022
From the Editors November 2022
From the Editors January 2023
From the Editors March 2023
From the Editors September 2023
From the Editors December 2023
From the Editors September 2024
Archive
About the journal
About us
Focus and Scope
Editorial Team
Open Access Policy
Indexing and points
Contact
Subscription - print version of the journal
Business Model
Ethics statement
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
EX-ANTE ANALYSIS OF MACRO-REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE VISEGRAD COUNTRIES, WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON SOME TURBULENT PERIODS
1
Faculty of Economics, Institute of World and Regional Economics, University of Miskolc, Hungary
Submission date: 2023-04-13
Final revision date: 2023-05-19
Acceptance date: 2023-05-19
Online publication date: 2023-06-29
Publication date: 2023-06-29
Corresponding author
Dóra Szendi
Faculty of Economics, Institute of World and Regional Economics, University of Miskolc, Miskolc-Egyetemváros, 3515, Miskolc, Hungary
Faculty of Economics, Institute of World and Regional Economics, University of Miskolc, Miskolc-Egyetemváros, 3515, Miskolc, Hungary
Economic and Regional Studies 2023;16(2):147-170
KEYWORDS
JEL CLASSIFICATION CODES
O11
R11
R15
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Subject and purpose of work: Monitoring the development of a given region and forecasting its potential changes is an evergreen topic in regional economic analysis. The aim of the current work is to analyse the development path of four Central-Eastern-European countries and create short term forecast for their development. Materials and methods: The authors discuss and test an autoregressive model for short-run, ex-ante assessment of spatial development using data from four CEE countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary). Results: The research shows that the initial (1995-2021) development trajectories of the countries were still determined by the shocks of the transition period that started after 1990. The analysis shows that further development is essentially determined by inflationary pressures and changes in fiscal and monetary conditions. Conclusions: The analysis shows that after a recovery period of 1.5-2 years, the countries could be back on the path of development from 2024 but starting from a lower level and at a more modest pace.
REFERENCES (56)
1.
Ackermann, R. (2001). Pfadabhängigkeit, Institutionen und Regelkonform. Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen (in German).
2.
Adamowicz, M. (2020). Conditions of Local Development in the Context of Shaping Developmental Strategy and Policy in Poland. Economic and Regional Studies, 13(2), 145-169. https://doi.org/10.2478/ers-20...
3.
Barto, A., Dietterich, T. G. (2004). Reinforcement Learning and its Relationship to Supervised Learning. Handbook of Learning and Approximate Dynamic Programming, 47-64.
4.
Benedek, J. (2021). Regionális egyenlőtlenség és gazdasági felzárkózás. Magyarországi és romániai régiók összehasonlító vizsgálata. (Regional inequality and economic catching-up. Comparative analysis of regions in Hungary and Romania) Észak-magyarországi Stratégiai Füzetek, 18(1), 4-14 (in Hungarian). https://doi.org/10.32976/strat....
5.
Berndt, E. R. (1991). The Practice of Econometrics: Classic and Contemporary. Addison Wesley, Reading.
6.
BFS (2022). Indikatoren der Lebensqualität. Bundesamt für Statistik (in German).bfs.adminch/bfs/de.
7.
Biau, O., D’elia, A. (2010). Euro Area GDP Forecasting Using Large Survey Datasets: A Randon Forest Approach. Euro indicators Working Papers.
8.
BMZ (2012). Territoriale Entwicklung im ländlichen Raum. Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit. Berlin (in German).
9.
Burla, L., Widmer, M., Zeitner, C. (2022). Zukünftiger Bestand und Bedarf an Fachärztinnen und -ärzten in der Schweiz. OBSAN Bericht, Neuchätel (in German).
10.
Cripps, F. (2014). Macro-model scenarios and implications for European policy. in Eatwell, John, Terry McKinley, and Pascal Petit, eds. Challenges for Europe in the World of 2030. Farnham, Surrey: Ashgate Publishing.
11.
Dijkstra, L., Annoni, P., Kozovska, K. (2011). A New Regional Competitiveness Index: Theory, Methods and Findings. European Union Regional Policy Working Papers No. 2.
12.
EC (2020). Handbook of Territorial and Local Development Strategies. European Commission, Brussels.
13.
Eckey, H. F., Schwengler, B., Türck, M. (2007). Vergleich von deutschen Arbeitsmarktregionen. IAB-Discussion Paper, No. 3/2007 (German).
14.
EU (2012). Europäische Erhebung zur Lebensqualität (EQLS). European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (in German). https://www.eurofound.europa.e... european-quality-of-life-surveys.
15.
EU (2015a). Agenda 2000. Eine stärkere und erweiterte Union (in German). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/DE/ legal-content/summary/agenda-2000-for-a-stronger-and-wider-union.html.
16.
EU (2015b). Politische Strategien für ein besseres Leben. (in German). https://www.europarl.europa.eu... summits/lis1_de.htm.
17.
EU (2018). Die 28 Mitgliedstaaten der EU. Brüssel (in German). https://european-union.europa.... principles-countries-history/country-profiles_de.
19.
Fehr, H. (2011). Berechnungen des langfristigen Produktionspotenzials unter Berücksichtigung verschiedener altersbedingter und bildungsspezifischer Produktivitätsprofile. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, Wiesbaden, Arbeitspapier Nr. 02 (in German).
20.
Fenz, G., Spitzer, M. (2005). AQM: The Austrian Quarterly Model of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank. Working Papers 104. Österreichische Nationalbank, Wien. (in German).
21.
Gillmann, N., Lehmann, R., Nauerth, J. A., Ponattu, D., Ragnitz, J., Sonnenburg, J., Weber, M. (2019). Wachstum und Produktivität 2035. ifo Institut, Dresden Studien, Nr. 84. (in German).
22.
Headey, B., Muffels, R., Wooden, M. (2008). Wealth and happiness revisited – growing national income does go with greater happiness. Social Indicators Research, 64, pp. 1-27.
23.
Heilemann, U. (2009). Déja Vu: Prognose in der Kriese. Wirtschaftsdienst, Nr. 2, pp. 90-95. (in German).
24.
Heilemann, U. (2019). Rezessionen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland von 1966 bis 2013. Wirtschaftsdienst, Nr. 8, pp. 546-551. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273.... (in German).
25.
Hesse, M., Meyerhoff, J., Petschow, U. (1998). Verkehrsinfrastrukturen und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung. Institut für ökologische Wirtschaftsforschungs, Berlin. (in German).
26.
IAB (2010). Regionale Arbeitsmarktprognosen der Arbeitslosen und sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten. Nr. 2, Nürnberg. (in German).
27.
ITM (2020). Nemzeti energia- és klímaterv. Innovációs és Technológiai Minisztérium, Budapest. (in Hungarian).
28.
Jung, J. K., Patnam, M., Ter-Martirosyan, A. (2018). An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning. IMF Working Paper No. 2018/230, pp. 1-33. https://doi.org/10.5089/978148....
29.
Kirchgässner, G., Savioz, M. (2001). Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth. German Economic Review. 2 (4), pp. 339-365. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0....
30.
Kocziszky, Gy., Benedek, J. (2012). Contributions to the issues of regional economic growth and equilibrium as well as the regional policy. Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 61 (2): 113-130.
31.
Kocziszky, Gy., Szendi, D. (2021). Comparative Analysis of the Economic Development Paths of Hungarian Counties. PUBLIC FINANCE QUARTERLY 66 : Special edition, 2021/2, pp. 7-30. https://doi.org/10.35551/ PFQ_2021_s_2_1.
32.
Kocziszky, Gy., Szendi, D. (2023). Köztes európai (V4+2) országok fejlődési pályáinak összehasonlító vizsgálata kompozit index segítségével. Regional Statistics (under publishing). (n Hungarian).
33.
Koll, W. (2009). Welche Rolle spielen Prognosen? Wirtschaftsdienst, Nr. 2. pp. 79-86. https://doi. org/10.1007/s10273-009-0894-y.
34.
Kozak, S., Grzeda, L. (2019). Quantitative Changes of Endogenous Factors Affecting the Economic Development of the Mazowieckie Voivodeship in 2004-2017. Economic and Regional Studies, Volume 12, No. 3, pp. 326-335. https://doi.org/10.2478/ers-20....
35.
Kumar, S. M., Woo, J. (2010). Public Dept and Growth. IMF Working Paper. WP/10/174. https://doi. org/10.5089/9781455201853.001.
36.
MARTIN, R. (2010). Roepke Lecture in Economic Geography - Rethinking Regional Path Dependence: Beyond Lock-in to Evolution. Economic Geography, 86: 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1944....
37.
Meinel, G., Reichert, S. (2004). Flächenwirkung des deutschen Autobahnnetzes – Konzept und erste Ergebnisse einer GIS-gestützten Analyse. Deutschen Gesellschaft für Photogrammetrie, Band 13. pp. 227-234.
39.
Mourougane, A. (2006). Forecasting Monthly GDP for Canada. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 515.
40.
OECD (2014). How’s Life in Your Region? Measuring Regional and Local Well-being for Policy Making. OECD Publishing, Paris.
42.
Peterson, J. S. (2014). Review of Research at Virginia Tech on the Relationship between School Building Condition and Student and Teacher Performance and Attitudes. PhD dissertation. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. https://vtechworks.lib.vt.edu/..._ JS_D_2014.pdf?isAllowed=y&sequence=1.
43.
Potrafke, N., Gründler, K., Mosler, M., Dörr, L. (2019). Der Zusammenhang zwischen Verschuldung, Budgetzusammensetzung und volkswirtschaftlichem Wachstum. ifo Forschungs-Berichte, 107/2019. München.
44.
Sedillot, F., Pain, N. (2003). Indicator Models of Real GDP Growth in Selected OECD Countries. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 364.
45.
Seto, K. C., Davis, S. J., Mitchell, R. B., Stokes, E. C., Unruh, G., Ürge-Vorsatz, D. (2016). Carbon Lock-In: Types, Causes, and Policy Implications. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2016 41 (1), pp. 425- 452. https://doi.org/10.1146/annure....
46.
Starfield, B., Birn, A. E. (2007). Income redistribution is not enough: income inequality, social welfare programs, and achieving equity in health. J Epidemiol Community Health, 61 (12), pp. 1038-1041. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2....
47.
Szendi, D., Kocziszky, Gy. (2022). Changes in the social and technological innovation potential of the Visegrad (V4) regions (2001–2019). Észak-magyarországi Stratégiai Füzetek XIX. 4. pp. 34-47. https://doi.org/10.32976/strat....
48.
Tiberius, V., Gojowy, R., Dabic, M. (2022). Forecasting the future of robo advisory: A three-stage Delphi study on economic, technological, and societal implications. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tech....
49.
Zimmermann, K. F. (2009). Prognosekriese: Warum weniger manchmal mehr ist. Wirtschaftsdienst, Nr. 2, pp. 86-90. (in German).
| eISSN: | 2451-182X |
| ISSN: | 2083-3725 |
Digitalization of Economic and Regional Studies/ Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne – task financed under the agreement No. 819/P-DUN/2018 by the Minister of Science and Higher Education allocated to the activities of disseminating science.
© 2006-2024 Journal hosting platform by Bentus
We process personal data collected when visiting the website. The function of obtaining information about users and their behavior is carried out by voluntarily entered information in forms and saving cookies in end devices. Data, including cookies, are used to provide services, improve the user experience and to analyze the traffic in accordance with the Privacy policy. Data are also collected and processed by Google Analytics tool (more).
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
